Global Research Unlocked

All Episodes (31)

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1. 

   1. A real boost to operating margins through artificial intelligence

   Many businesses to see AI benefits within medium termThe democratization of artificial intelligence or AI has created a major tech wave for consumers. AI promises to make some businesses more efficient and even help businesses generate more revenue. We surveyed BofA Global Research analysts across the globe and found that 94% of covered companies plan to use AI to become more efficient and generate revenue. Survey participants expect 75% of companies to see positive AI benefits within the next 3

   Nov 24,2023 24:31
2. 

   2. The Bull Case for US Stocks

   Productivity gains from AI will drive margin growthThe S&P 500 has enjoyed double digit gains this year thanks in part to waning recession concerns and a resilient consumer that has been somewhat insulated from higher interest rates. We sit down with Head of US Equity and Quantitative Strategy, Savita Subramanian, who remains bullish on US equities from these levels. Savita believes that in this backdrop of high inflation, wage growth and interest rates, companies will likely focus more on effic

   Nov 10,2023 13:21
3. 

   3. GLP-1s may save healthcare billions but could cost companies growth and revenues

   GLP-1 impact should be big but lots of puts and takesAlmost 40% of US adults are obese and the US healthcare system spends nearly $173 billion a year on obesity-related medical costs. In the past, exercise and diet regiments were the best solutions for combating obesity but now there's an injectable called a GLP-1. These drugs trigger receptors in the brain to suppress appetites, cravings and addictive behaviors. Pete Galbo explains GLP-1s could mean less snacking but even years from now when pe

   Nov 10,2023 21:47
4. 

   4. The time to own Emerging Markets is not now, but it may be near

   The EM growth story should unfold in the springOil prices have rallied over the last few months and while Francisco Blanch has crude oil forecasts above the commodity curve for 2024, the curve is downward sloping as demand growth is expected to be weaker and supply stronger. With Emerging Markets (EM) now negatively correlated with oil prices, lower oil could be a relief-China and India are now the biggest importers of oil in the world. David Hauner adds that 80% of EM returns tend to come when

   Oct 27,2023 24:27
5. 

   5. Future of EV charging depends on whether it’s done at the gym or beside I-95

   Future of charging depends on complicated questionsElectric vehicles (EVs) are expected to account for 35% of new vehicle sales in North America by the end of this decade. This means more EV charging stations will be needed, but the mix between expensive fast chargers, like those seen at highway rest areas, and cheaper slow chargers is debated. Especially as most trips are short and easily within vehicle range. Alex Vrabel joins us to discuss how public why auto OEMs have recently coalesced arou

   Oct 11,2023 20:33
6. 

   6. Deleting the middle seat through aviation technology

   Narrowbody aircrafts will usher in a new era of aviationThe commercial aircraft market offers fairly steady and attractive growth. About 2-3% of the fleet gets replaced every year and on top of that, the fleet is likely to keep expanding, as air traffic is expected to grow at about 1.5x-1.7x the rate of Global GDP. Within the commercial market, narrowbody aircraft, which traditionally have just one aisle, have been gaining share as fuel efficiency has improved range and because these planes can

   Oct 04,2023 19:13
7. 

   7. Inflation means shopping around for gasoline and hedges

   Sticky inflation means the Fed put slips awayVolatility markets in rates and equities are sending different signals. Equity volatility has fallen back to pre-COVID levels while rate volatility is still elevated. Ben Bowler suggests that despite lots of uncertainty in rate markets, equity investors are still conditioned to "buy the dip." But high inflation means that the free Fed backstop is no longer and tail risks are greater. The low level of implied equity volatility means that there's an alt

   Sep 21,2023 26:15
8. 

   8. Welcoming inflation back to Japan

   Inflation is positive for Japan and BoJ wants it to sustainJapan's economy has been stuck in a negative feedback loop of low growth, low inflation and interest rates since the asset bubble burst in the late 1980s. An environment of little to no inflation reduced the desire to raise wages, to invest and to spend. But the return of inflation can mean corporate investments in productivity, in growth and a consumer desire to spend. As the purchasing power of cash erodes, investors could reallocate i

   Sep 14,2023 26:53
9. 

   9. Lithium supply charges ahead, outpacing torque-y demand

   Lithium price likely to fall and take battery costs down tooLithium is one of the more abundant minerals found in the Earth's crust and relative to other metals markets, like copper, it's still fairly small in size, which helps to explain the volatility. Even though global EV (electric vehicle) penetration is expected to rise to 40% by the end of the decade, Matt DeYoe sees an oversupply of lithium in 2024 and 2025, pressuring prices for the metal and providing cost relief for battery suppliers

   Aug 23,2023 27:07
10. 

    10. Prepare for landing — Sky high international travel demand to normalize

    You can't fly to Ithaca when you're in ItalyUS network airlines have benefited from booming demand for international travel this summer. Revenues for US to Europe routes are 45% higher than pre-pandemic, helped by pent up demand and a lifting of all restrictions. Domestic beach and mountain destinations were great options in 2021 but have lost share as people set their sights abroad. But Andrew Didora believes we should see some normalization this Fall as people who had traveled internationally

    Aug 14,2023 19:58
11. 

    11. End of easy money means beginning of productivity improvements

    AI to drive productivity and margin expansion over timeCompanies have faced rising cost pressures as they emerged from the short-lived COVID downturn. The price of raw materials, labor and money has all risen but there are positives that come with this changing dynamic-companies are forced to focus on efficiency. Savita Subramanian believes we are at the forefront of a productivity boom driven partly by AI but also corporate necessity. Savita points out that the pace of margin deterioration has

    Aug 04,2023 21:00
12. 

    12. Yield curve discounting a fall in prices not the economy

    Bond market expects the Fed to get the job doneDespite all the talk of sticky, structurally higher inflation, Meghan Swiber and the US Rates Strategy team find that after disaggregating the yield curve the message from rates markets may be a bit different than the popular discourse. Yes, the yield curve inversion suggests the market is pricing in Fed rate cuts. But looking at implied real rates suggests these cuts are expected because inflation should come down to the Fed's target, not because o

    Jul 17,2023 13:53
13. 

    13. Blistering heat but cooling rents in the Sunbelt

    Demand for new homes and single-family rentals should remain strong even in a mild recessionRental markets saw booming demand as people migrated and the economy recovered from COVID lows. But now, certain markets are facing high apartment supply, recent rent increases have made apartments less affordable and the consumer is less flush. Josh Dennerlein discusses apartment risks in the Sunbelt, why the single family rental market is generally more attractive than multi-family and why New York City

    Jul 12,2023 25:45
14. 

    14. Thoughts on Digital Assets: Beyond Crypto

    Tokenization of traditional assets acceleratesToken prices have gone up, down and up again, but the development of distributed ledgers and blockchains has accelerated throughout the volatility. The technology is maturing as public permissionless blockchains become faster and cheaper; and as private permissioned distributed ledgers emerge, that enables financial institution and corporate use cases required for regulatory compliance, privacy and scalabilty. Distributed ledgers and blockchains have

    Jul 07,2023 06:49
15. 

    15. A.I. enabled software—awakening data and ideas

    The bots are here to helpFor software companies, generative AI can add efficiencies to product development but the revenue side is where things can get even more interesting. For example, digital content design software largely serves professional designers, and thanks to proliferation of Internet advertising, social media and web presence, that market has grown nicely. But AI can help open these design tools to a much larger group, allowing consumers to, say, come up with custom designs for bir

    Jul 05,2023 18:03
16. 

    16. Treasury supply expected to surge while rates to fall by year end

    Treasury supply to hit $1 trillion over the coming monthsThe debt ceiling drama has finally come to a close as Washington signed legislation to raise the debt ceiling and avert default. But the next chapter abruptly follows and involves $1T of Treasury Bill issuance over the next 3 months, 5x the average annual supply. Mark Cabana discusses the impact that may have on shorter term Treasuries, the outlook for long dated bonds and whether the agreed upon spending caps will dissuade any of the Trea

    Jun 21,2023 12:46
17. 

    17. More than flipping a switch—bottlenecks in the energy transition

    Mine-d the compelling long term story for metalsDemand for metals is expected to ramp further as the world transitions to greener and more sustainable energy. But mining and processing more of these metals will require substantial capex and we'll likely need higher metals prices to spur that investment. Metals strategist Michael Widmer believes we need to invest around $160 billion per year, well above the $90 billion we currently spend. Investment in the electrical grid will have to increase as

    Jun 13,2023 19:12
18. 

    18. No credit crunch yet but the pinch still hurts

    Consumer lending remains positive for now but does a weakening consumer threaten that strength?The collapse of several regional banks earlier this year has raised concerns around credit availability, especially as loan standards were already tightening into the spring. While Fed data shows that bank balance sheets are still expanding, loans tied to the commercial & industrial sector have declined 6% annualized over the last 13 weeks and it's consumer lending that has held up better. We discuss w

    Jun 01,2023 21:58
19. 

    19. Poor sentiment helps create a floor but we still see risks

    Negative sentiment pervades but depth of possible recession key to market pathOur proprietary survey shows investors are as pessimistic as they have been all year, leading to the biggest shift to bonds from equities since the Global Financial Crisis. But the news is not all bad. Savita Subramanian notes companies have effectively cut costs driving stability or improvement in margins and one reason March quarter results beat expectations. Though not constructive on markets at the index level, she

    May 30,2023 22:43
20. 

    20. Biodiversity preservation growing beyond gardens and into the boardroom

    Biodiversity loss presents risks to the planet, company reputations and supply chainsBiodiversity provides us with essential ecosystem services such as pollination, water purification and climate regulation. Mentions of biodiversity in the news have soared 200% over the past two years, suggesting growing interest and awareness. Dimple Gosai, Head of US ESG Research thinks biodiversity related investments may grow 20x from today. In her work she concludes that within higher emitting sectors such

    May 17,2023 19:19
21. 

    21. Thoughts on Digital Assets: Real-world use cases accelerate

    Blockchain innovation and app development continuesBlockchains are implementing innovative but differentiated approaches to improving the tradeoff between scalability, decentralization and security. We expect blockchains that expand functionality and incentivize development to become attractive for developers in the near term. Over the longer term, we expect blockchains that prioritize usability and effectively market themselves to gain market share by attracting a robust and diverse ecosystem o

    May 09,2023 09:16
22. 

    22. From ACH to wages, offering insights from a breadth of consumer data

    Consumer resilient but gradually slowing The Bank of America Institute joins for a discussion on the many data sources they examine, sources that offer a multi-dimensional look at the consumer. Data suggests the US consumer has weakened somewhat since the start of the year, with household spending growth falling to the lowest level since February 2021. Some of the weakness is likely temporary and follows what was a very strong start to the year, and it's noteworthy that total payments, which goe

    May 05,2023 20:36
23. 

    23. Bank risks abate but tighter lending, slower economy likely approaching

    Economic concerns and increased funding costs may combine to help slow a resilient US economyThe consumer economy has remained strong in the face of rate hikes and labor demand has remained resilient. But recent stresses in the banking sector give Michael Gapen more confidence in his view that the US will see a mild recession later this year. Banks had started to tighten lending by the end of the 4Q and a combination of economic concerns as well as higher cost funding and more regulations could

    Apr 04,2023 23:44
24. 

    24. Thoughts on Crypto and Digital Assets: Blockchain innovation and real world uses

    Blockchain innovation and app development continuesBlockchains are implementing innovative but differentiated approaches to improving the tradeoff between scalability, decentralization and security. We expect blockchains that expand functionality and incentivize development to become attractive for developers in the near term. Over the longer term, we expect blockchains that prioritize usability and effectively market themselves to gain market share by attracting a robust and diverse ecosystem o

    Mar 27,2023 06:08
25. 

    25. Disrupt and expand; the iPhone moment for AI

    We're only tapping into 1% of global data, artificial intelligence should allow us to make use of much moreGenerative AI models such as ChatGPT have dominated headlines and adoption has been particularly swift. But generative AI can do much more than write college essays. Haim Israel thinks this is an "iPhone moment" where a new technology exists that will revolutionize our lives more than many of us currently appreciate. Justin Post describes how generative AI can enhance social media content a

    Mar 24,2023 26:36
26. 

    26. China travel recovery to endure on high savings, easing frictions

    Chinese resorts benefiting from pent up demand but international leisure destinations will gradually pick upChina's COVID reopening unleashed nearly 3 years of pent up business and international travel demand. So far, domestic travel has dominated the recovery as international travel has been hampered by passport and visa frictions. Nathan Gee believes that as these constraints ease international travel can recover to 50-60% of normal by year-end. Shaun Kelley explains that while Chinese tourism

    Mar 08,2023 22:41
27. 

    27. Boom in rates, bust in the energy crisis should keep boosting EU banks

    EU banks seeing various factors change for the betterSince the Global Financial Crisis, investors have avoided European banks as the companies navigated the low to negative interest rate backdrop and greater regulatory hurdles. But with interest rates having risen and disciplined cost management, European banks have become profitable again thanks in part to a surplus of low cost deposits. Alastair joins us to discuss how European banks are now better capitalized, poised to lend again, expand the

    Mar 02,2023 18:19
28. 

    28. Big year for Alzheimer’s drugs but more innovation still required

    Improvement coming but there's much more to goIn the US, more than 6 million Americans are living with Alzheimer's disease and by 2060, Alzheimer's disease cases are predicted to rise to an estimated 14 million people. However, a number of therapeutics are entering the marketplace this year showing promise of reducing plaque in the brain and a slowing of cognitive decline. Data so far suggests relatively modest improvement but Geoff believes a combination of some of these therapies and greater i

    Feb 15,2023 16:18
29. 

    29. Thoughts on Crypto and Digital Assets: The future of money and payments

    CBDCs: The future of money and paymentWe view digital currencies, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), as a natural evolution of money and payments. Digital currencies and programmable payments already exist, but the underlying CBDC infrastructure is what makes these digital currencies so transformative and will likely change how and when value is transferred over the next 15 years. There are currently 114 central banks exploring CBDCs, up from 35 in May 2020, representing 58% of cou

    Feb 06,2023 08:00
30. 

    30. Lower goods prices, higher Social Security helps spend but it all comes down to labor

    Weaker labor the key to lower spend and inflationConsumer spending is challenged by a number of well-discussed factors including inflation and fading stimulus but there are some positives too. The prices of many goods are down from highs, minimum wages for several states rose at the start of the year and Social Security payments for '23 enjoyed an unusually big boost. Aditya Bhave and Robby Ohmes join us to discuss how these various drivers net out, the outlook for higher and lower income consum

    Feb 06,2023 20:14
31. 

    31. Newest generation of obesity drugs could change the game, access questions remain

    Major R&D requirements mean obesity market likely to be dominated by large biopharmasThe CDC estimates the US obesity prevalence is nearly 42%, making it a common and costly disease for Americans, especially as it is associated with other health afflictions. However, a new generation of obesity therapeutics is set to enter the market over the next few years and these offer greater weight loss than prior generations, fewer side effects and may offer cardiovascular benefits. But the initial costs

    Jan 30,2023 17:30